The Current REAL WORLD ///REGIONAL// AmCON
AmRRON Communications Network Condition Level is:
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Update 20240819-1600Z
Due to the lessening of the reported “immanency” of an Iranian military strike on Israel during the ceasefire talks in Cairo this week, we are lowering the AmCON to Level 3.
While it seems that Iran and its proxies still have their fingers on the proverbial “triggers,” it is unlikely that Iran, Houthis, and Hezbollah will carry out their promised strikes (missiles, rockets, mortars, artillery, and UAVs) against Israel so long as ceasfire talks are ongoing. We will continue to monitor this highly volatile situation in the Middle East.
SOURCE: AL Monitor
Negotiations on a cease-fire between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas group are due to resume in Cairo on Wednesday, after two days of talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, last week.
Diplomats are pushing for an agreement on a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and a hostage and prisoner-release deal, which they hope will avert an expected response against Israel from Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah over the killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr July 30 in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a suspected Israeli attack in Tehran the following day.
On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the current round of talks may be the last chance to reach an agreement that would secure the release of the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and end the Israeli war on the enclave.
Update 20240811-2200Z
SOURCE: Amir Tsarfati (from Israel) | Less than 24 hours to the beginning of Tisha B’Av (August 12th, the day on the Hebrew calendar that marks the destruction of both first and second Temples), and it is clear to the Israeli security establishment that a strike from Lebanon and Iran is a matter of 24-48 hours.
Via Amir Tsarfati: CNN Reports Israeli intelligence believes that Hezbollah will launch an attack on August 12, and hours later, Iran will join and launch its own attack.
“Israel must strike preemptively without informing the U.S. ahead of it.” said Tsarfati
Update 20240807-2130Z
SOURCE: LiveUAMaps | The Iranian Aviation Organization issued a NOTAM on Tuesday to warn pilots and aviation authorities about a risk of gun firing activities in western Iran on August 7 and 8, setting the danger zone up to an altitude of 12,000 feet
SOURCE: Amir Tsarfati in Israel 20240807-1630Z | An Egyptian government source informed Al Qahera News that Iranian autorities have notified all civil aviation companies worldwide to avoid flying over Iranian airspace
SOURCE: Amir Tsarfati in Israel 20240807-0220Z | Egypt to the Egyptian airlines: You are requested to avoid flying tomorrow between 04:00AM and 07:00AM (Israel time) over Iran.
AmCON-2 20240805-1745Z
ISRAEL / MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT “IMMINENT” (according to multiple sourced reports)
Primary sources: Amir Tsarfati (in Israel), whose team is tracking multiple OSINT sources, as well as contacts from within the Israeli government, and reports from others on the ground in Israel:
- U.S. General Kurilla (CENTCOM Commander) is in Israel meeting with leadership
- Russian Secretary of the Security Council is in Iran meeting with leadership
- Iran has informed foreign ambassadors that it intended to attack Israel
- Unprecedented deployment of the U.S. military in the Middle East, mostly in preparation for interceptions of hundreds of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles fired from multiple directions towards Israel.
- U.S. Secretary of Defense has ordered Abraham Lincoldn carrier group to the Middle East
- U.S. Secretary of Defense ordered a squadron of F22 steal multi-role aircraft to the region
- IDF officials recommending to Prime Minister Netanyahu and Minister of Defense not to wait for an attack by Hezbollah and launch preemptive attack.
- Multiple discussions include “Preemptive Strike” related to Israel’s preparations for the coming conflict.
AmRRON Operations:
It is highly probable that if the Middle East conflict becomes kinetic, and especially if it spreads to a wider theater of conflict, that critical infrastructure in allied nations with Israel may be targeted by cyber attacks, particularly internet, telecommunications, and satellite/navigational infrastructures.
- Inspect, repair, replace, and test communications equipment and power sources
- Top off fuel and batteries
- Participate in this week’s training and practice nets
- Discuss emergency communications plans with family and groups
AmCON-3 20240421-2045Z
ISRAEL/IRAN CONFLICT
The AmCON Level has been LOWERED to AmCON-3
Related Posting: https://amrron.com/2024/04/21/lowering-to-amcon-3/
AmCON-2 20240414-0400Z
ISRAEL/IRAN CONFLICT ESCALATION
Recent Posting: https://amrron.com/2024/04/14/israel-iran-war-update-14-april-2024-0400z-amcon-2/
Due to the recent escalation and ongoing missile and air strikes involving Israel and Iran, we are increasing the AmCON to Level 2. Because GPS jamming is already reportedly taking place, along with threats of escalation now involving Russia, we anticipate a heightened probability of cyber attacks targeting coalition (Israel, U.S., U.K., Jordanian, and others) conventional telecommunications, satellite communications, and other telecommunications systems.
Action items for AmRRON radio operators:
- Maintain situational awareness, make inspections, repairs, and testing of all radio communications, including computer backups, fuel and battery storage.
- Stow any unnecessary or unused electronics in faraday protection.
- If you do not have backup radio communications, disconnect antennas from primary radio antenna(s) when radio is not in use.
- Participate in practice and training nets.
- NCSs: Review procedures and prepare an IES (Initial Event Summary) in the event of sudden loss of conventional communications
- ALL stations: Review procedures and prepare to submit a STATREP at the onset of sudden loss of conventional communications.
- OPERATIONAL NETS (only in the event of sudden disruption of conventional communications)
- Prepare for National Nets on 20m daily at 1900Z (Voice) and 2000Z (Digital)
- Rolling Regional Nets *80m at 2100 your local time (Digital), and; *80m at 2200 your local time (voice)
*Corrected 4/14/2024 @1720Z (Previously listed as 40m).
- Persistent Presence Net: Other than the National and Rolling Regional nets listed above, follow the Persistent Presence Net schedule
- Follow instructions: Any changes to the net schedules will be announced during the AmRRON Scheduled nets, and over the Persistent Presence Net.
- Regional and sub-Regional HF Nets (NCSs may choose to operate nets which better suit the region and situation, and will announce those nets as necessary on the Persistent Presence Net and the Rolling Regional Nets.
Keep checking the website, and this page, for updates as they become available.
Recent Posting: AmCON-3 in a Post-October 7th World
AmCON-3 20231012-2030z
Increased likelihood of a disrupting event which could result in loss of conventional telecommunications and other services.
Due to numerous corroborating news and intelligence outlets, there is a significantly increased risk of social unrest between pro Israeli and pro Palestinian demonstrations, especially within the major cities of US and Europe. Additionally, this call to action by the terrorist organization, Hamas, could incite lone wolf or sleeper cells to become operational. Intelligence indicates that at the very least, Jewish personnel and their businesses and places of worship may be targets of terrorist attacks.a
SOURCE: Forward Observer
HAMAS LEADER CALLS FOR INTERNATIONAL “DAY OF RAGE”: Head of the Hamas Diaspora Office and founding member Khaled Mashal called for Muslims across the globe to “be martyrs for al-Aqsa” in “the Friday of al-Aqsa Flood” on 20 October.
Why It Matters: Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian intelligence services have a presence in the U.S., and more “illegals” have very likely crossed the southern border into the U.S. with the potential to act as sleeper cells. Hezbollah is involved in the narcotics trade in Latin America, ranging from the tri-border area between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay to Mexico. If Hamas and Hezbollah seek to draw the U.S. into war in the Levant, they could conduct an attack against U.S. personnel and American tourists in Europe or the Middle East. Amid already high domestic tensions between pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel political factions, Hamas militants could potentially conduct attacks within the United States. – R.C.
AmCON-4 20231009
Due to the escalating situation involving the war in Israel, and the potential for expanding regionally and beyond, the AmRRON Readiness Condition Level is now at Level 4 (Incident Possible).
There are numerous factors which could lead to regional expansion of the conflict between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah, especially as it relates to their supporting nation states (such as Iran).
Additionally, large demonstrations in western cities (including the U.S.) in support of “Palestine” could embolden jihadi fighters in the U.S. (including those who have infiltrated our southern border) to carry out terror attacks in western nations similar to what we saw in southern Israel this past weekend.
From S2 Underground ‘Wire’
“…Palestinian forces are well known for implanting sleeper cells around the world, and encouraging lone-wolf attacks beyond their borders. Consequently, though this conflict is taking place overseas, citizens must remain vigilant and observant of the potential for demonstrations within the US to become violent. Several clashes have already been reported in several US cities between pro0Israel and pro-Palestine supporters, but any substantial attacks are dependent on Israel’s actions within Gaza, and how the conflict escalates over the next few days.”
The unrest and division could also be exploited by Chinese operatives who (according to multiple intelligence reports) are affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and who have infiltrated into the U.S., and pose a significant risk through sabotage operations. This could lead to disruptions (either kinetic physical action or cyber attacks) against our telecommunications, transportation, navigation, and fiber optic internet infrastructures.
AmRRON operators should take the following actions:
- Inspect, functions check, and/or repair communications equipment, including alternative power
- Charge batteries and increase fuel supply
- Test your family, group, and community emergency communications plan
- Discuss communications and other emergency response plans with same
- Ensure your software is updated and tested
- Submit a test STATREP (preferably using Commstat) in the next 24 hours
Check the website and this AmCON page for any updates.
AmCON-5 20230509
The AmRRON Intelligence Brief incorrectly states ‘Level-3’. Please make a note of it and inform others that we are at Level-5
Although we continue to closely monitor the deteriorating geopolitical situation between Russian and Ukraine, and China and Taiwan, we are lowering the AmCON to level five, as we do not see a specific imminent threat to conventional communications as a result.
If this situation escalates, or if we observe other developments that increases the risk to the power or communications infrastructures, we will adjust accordingly.
Continue to maintain your stations and train/practice regularly.
AmCON-4 20221002
AmRRON is now at AmCON-4. Great job to all who covered the bands during Hurricane Ian! And a SUPERB job to the operators at the Eastern SIGCEN. There were four pieces of Health and Welfare traffic passed, and all four parties were found safe and well.
As of Saturday, October 1st, there were still reports of isolated communities which had received no outside contact, so we appreciate those of you in the east and southeast who are able to continue to monitor the Persistent Presence Net. Don’t forget, Puerto Rico is still knocked out from the hurricane a week prior to Ian.
AmCON-2 20220926
In preparation and response to Hurricane Ian, we are at AmCON-2 (Event imminent).
Visit the Hurricane Ian page for the latest updates, operations, and guidance. We will keep that page updated periodically.
========================= Archived AmCON Level descriptions below =======================
AmCON-4 20220719-1630Z
Due to continual monitoring of the geo-political situation, we have lowered the AmRRON Communications Readiness Condition to Level 4. There are no known imminent threats to the conventional communications networks at this time.
However, we continue to monitor multiple probable threats to our power grids and telecommunications infrastructure:
- Extreme heat and persistent drought conditions in the United States has placed great strain on the power grid. Several analysts have warned of blackouts and catastrophic failures due to high demand and inadequate maintenance and modernization of the grid.
- There still exists a degree of threat from Russian-linked hackers which possess the capabilities, and have indicated intent, to target critical infrastructure with cyber-based attacks.
- Russia and China each have been emboldened by the current US regime’s foreign policy, which has resulted in increased military (and other) related rhetoric.
- Iran has increased it’s nuclear centrifuge program for higher enrichment of nuclear materials, and is suspected of having everything they need to assemble a nuclear missile(s). Israel has vowed not to allow Iran to become nuclear capable and has been training jointly with the United States in preparation for military action against Iran.
Any of the above threats, or a combination of some or all, could result in a very rapid escalation with little to no warning, which could result in a regional, national, or continental grid down attack affecting commercial power and all telecommunications (satellite, oceanic fiber-optic capables, cellular systems, internet, etc.).
Remain vigilant and continue to train and practice, and participate in all scheduled training. Continue to make improvements in your station’s equipment and improving your skills.
AmCON-3 20220313-2145Z
After assessing the current war in Ukraine, we are lowering the AmCON from Level 2 (imminent/expected) to Level-3 (high probability/high risk). We have continuously monitored the situation for indications of cyber attacks against critical infrastructure in western nations. Based on our observations, the threat of disruptions appears to be contained to Russia, Ukraine, and surrounding nations.
We will continue to evaluate the situation and will adjust the AmCON levels up or down based on known threat indicators.
We are still at an elevated risk. Continue to maintain readiness, and including maintaining/repairing equipment, as well as training and participating in scheduled practice nets.
AmCON-2 Russia/NATO Cyber Attacks — Critical Infrastructure disruption expected or extremely likely in western nations
AmCON-2 at 20220224-1920Z
Confirmed: Multiple government websites in #Russia including the Kremlin and the Sate Duma have fallen offline; the incident comes amid a spate of cyberattacks targeting neighboring Ukraine (Twitter pic.twitter.com/K1pPQu7cHs
NetBlocks (@netblocks) February 24, 2022
Most significantly:
President Biden has been presented with cyberattack options that are designed to disrupt Russia’s ability to sustain its military operations in Ukraine (NBC):
- Disrupting internet connectivity;
- Shutting off electric power;
- Tampering with railroad switches
— Global: MilitaryInfo (@Global_Mil_Info) February 24, 2022
AmRRON Special Instructions: No Change
- Fuel and batteries should be topped off and alt power and communications operations checks complete
- All Stations: Have abbreviated STATREP formatted and ready to transmit, or practice transmitting/sharing over Persistent Presence Net
- Conduct local/regional communications networks tests
- NCS (and higher) Stations: In addition to STATREP, have IES (Initial Event Summary) preformatted and ready to transmit in a sudden grid/comms-down disruption of conventional communications in your region or nationally.
- NCSs, arrange to coordinate with adjacent NCSs and BB stations to receive (and send) traffic in support of AmRRON operations if AmCON-1 becomes necessary.
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AmCON-3 Update 2-23-2022 @23:30 Zulu
Internet and TV turned off in Donetsk
https://mobile.twitter.com/loogunda/status/1496565524175728640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
More psyops
Ukraine’s 53rd brigade “has also received this” –
@3PQKn3D4A2k4gvm
The text reads, “Ukrainian military servicemen! The Russian army is already in Donetsk and Luhansk. Return home while it isn’t late!”
https://mobile.twitter.com/loogunda/status/1496432079894200322?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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The publication “Strana” tells what restrictions await Ukraine, starting from this night:
— Restriction of freedom of movement, special entry-exit regime, car inspection;
— Ban on mass events and strikes;
— Curfew;
— Checking documents, searches of citizens and housing;
— Prohibition for conscripts and persons liable for military service to change registration without the permission of the military registration and enlistment office. Also a ban on their travel abroad;
— Prohibition on the dissemination of information that can “destabilize the situation”;
— Special regulation of communications and the Internet. Mobile phones may be banned;
— Temporary or irrevocable evacuation of the population can be carried out – with the provision of alternative housing.
@UkraineWarReport
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Nordstream 2 gas pipe from Russia to Germany is now on hold and the company that built it is now being sanctioned by the US administration.
It’s going to be a very cold winter!
– Amir Tsarfati
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AmCON-3 Update 1-19-22 @ 03:45 Zulu
We are monitoring the Ukraine/Russia/NATO situation, and are continuing to hold at AmCON-3. If the AmCON level changes we will immediately notify AmRRON Corps via the Z-Net, as well as send out a notification via the AmRRON Mobile Team App and update this page.
AmCON-3 Russia/NATO Update 1-18-22 20:00hrs Zulu
from Amir T.
Russia vs Ukraine
“In recent hours, there have been reports from the United States indicating that Russia is in the final stages of military preparation for an invasion into Ukraine.”
[JJS note]
Be prepared to go to AmCON 2 this afternoon/evening. More information to follow. Top off batteries, fuel, and ops check your gear.
Participate in upcoming nets.
Finalize comms plans with family/friends/local nets.
Stow any non essential electronics and hard drives in faraday.
AmCON-3 as of 20211212-0230hrs Zulu
As of the date of this posting (11 Dec 2021 @ 18:30 Pacific) AmRRON is raising the communications readiness level to AmCON-3. Numerous intelligence analyses indicate a high probability that Russia will conduct open combat operations against Ukraine. Analysts are generally in agreement that war could break out within the next 30 days, and possibly much sooner.
GPS disruptions and jamming are already being reported in the region (see below). It is expected that widespread cyber attacks will take place against NATO countries to disrupt command & control operations, which would likely emphasize internet and telecommunications, as well as potential power grid attacks.
As an emergency communications network for disasters and civil defense, we urge all of our operators to prepare to support information sharing in order to support each other and our communities. AmRRON members are urged to take the following actions:
- Update software and conduct ops checks of your equipment
- Store any unused electronics in faraday protection unless performing checks and maintenance or training
- Inspect and ops-check alternate power sources and charge batteries
- Participate in scheduled practice nets
- Update your phone tree and local/community communications plan
- Make contact with your local communications network and conduct a communications test net
- Make a follow-up contact with local community leadership to discuss how you might support them in a communications blackout situation (this should consist of leaders — pastors, patriot elected officials, and other influential community leaders — which you have previously built a working relationship with)
- Review the Signals Operating Instructions and familiarize yourself with filling out STATREPs (full and abbreviated), SITREPs, SPOTREPs, etc.
- Continue to follow AmRRON.com for additional guidance, information, etc.
Read this full posting, with background and intelligence resources at:
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For more information on how the AmCON level is determined CLICK HERE
